risk analysis management

Strategic Security Management supports data driven security that is measurable, quantifiable and practical. Written for security professionals and other professionals responsible for making security decisions as well as for security management and criminal justice students, this text provides a fresh perspective on the risk assessment process. It also provides food for thought on protecting an organization’s assets, giving decision makers the foundation needed to climb the next step up the corporate ladder.

Strategic Security Management fills a definitive need for guidelines on security best practices. The book also explores the process of in-depth security analysis for decision making, and provides the reader with the framework needed to apply security concepts to specific scenarios. Advanced threat, vulnerability, and risk assessment techniques are presented as the basis for security strategies. These concepts are related back to establishing effective security programs, including program implementation, management, and evaluation. The book also covers metric-based security resource allocation of countermeasures, including security procedures, personnel, and electronic measures.

Strategic Security Management contains contributions by many renowned security experts, such as Nick Vellani, Karl Langhorst, Brian Gouin, James Clark, Norman Bates, and Charles Sennewald.

* Provides clear direction on how to meet new business demands on the security professional
* Guides the security professional in using hard data to drive a security strategy, and follows through with the means to measure success of the program
* Covers threat assessment, vulnerability assessment, and risk assessment – and highlights the differences, advantages, and disadvantages of each

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Environmentalists often perceive the risk management approach to environmental and public health policy as a tool to block regulation of industrial pollution. In contrast, this book presents six case studies which provide examples of how federal risk-based regulation has encouraged industry’s investment in pollution control. The authors trace the impact of risk management on the regulation of lead in gasoline, ozone-depleting chemicals, and emissions from the drycleaning, pulp and paper, coke, and municipal waste combustor industries.

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Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates – whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic.. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful – cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. “Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis” provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett’s highly-praised “Practical Schedule Risk Analysis”. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, “Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis” offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world’s leading commentator.

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Natural disasters cause considerable economic damage. While developed countries usually are able to cope with the impacts of natural hazards, developing countries are faced with severe consequences for their resources. In order to prevent long-term macroeconomic repercussions, governments need a comprehensive disaster rick management strategy.

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This book is intended to serve as a comprehensive source for the advancements and contributions made in environmental transformation and transport modeling in general and the associated health risk assessment topics in particular. The selection of the title, “Environmental Modeling and Health Risk Analysis” stems from an ambitious objective of providing a review of air, surface water and groundwater quality modeling topics and linking these models with exposure and health risk analysis. Thus, the purpose is to provide the reader with an integrated perspective on these two seemingly distant fields. The ACTS and RISK software that is an integral part of this book include computational platforms for all models discussed in the book. Using these two software tools, available from http://extras.springer.com/ , the models described in the book can be readily accessed and used in classroom or professional applications as demonstrated in the book.

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In the aftermath of catastrophes, it is common to find prior indicators, missed signals, and dismissed alerts that, had they been recognized and appropriately managed before the event, could have resulted in the undesired event being averted. These indicators are typically called “precursors.”

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Project scheduling is required for good project management, and the schedule represents the project plan under a specific set of assumptions, often that it will avoid new risks or even those that have occurred on previous occasions. The typical Critical Path Method (CPM) schedule assumes that the project team knows how long the scheduled activities will take. Yet, the experienced project manager knows that duration values so precisely stated are actually only estimates based on assumptions that could be wrong. A schedule risk analysis explores the implications for the project’s schedule of risk to the activity durations and also identifies the most important schedule risks. This analysis, building on and extending CPM scheduling, will result in a more accurate estimate of completion and provide an early opportunity for planning effective risk mitigation actions. “Practical Schedule Risk Analysis” contains a complete treatment of schedule risk analysis from basic to advanced concepts. The methods are introduced at the simplest level – why is the duration uncertain and how do we represent this uncertainty with a probability distribution. These are then progressively elaborated – how does uncertainty of activities along a path lead to more uncertainty of the path’s completion date; how can a schedule with parallel paths be riskier than each of the paths individually; and, how can we represent risks about activities that are not in the schedule at all. This title culminates in a discussion of the most powerful and advanced capabilities available in current commercial software. Schedule risk analysis is a process that is industry-independent, and the methods explained in this volume have been used by the author with positive effect in such industries as construction, oil and gas, information systems, environmental restoration and aerospace/defense. The result is a book that is not only highly practical; something that people within all types of projects and in all industries can apply themselves; but that is an extraordinarily complete guide to creating and managing a rigorous project schedule.

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Is there anything more important to the success of a project than making good decisions? This skill is certainly at or near the top of the list. Yet, few of us have had formal training in decision making. Decision analysis is the discipline that helps people choose wisely under conditions of uncertainty. This book introduces risk and decision analysis applied to project management. Probability is the language of uncertainty. Fortunately, a few basic concepts in probability and statistics go a long way toward making better decisions. The evaluation calculations are straightforward, and many everyday problems can be solved with a handheld calculator. Schuyler also explains and demystifies key concepts and techniques, including expected value, optimal decision policy, decision trees, the value of information, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic techniques, modeling techniques, judgments and biases, utility and multi-criteria decisions, and stochastic variance.

Some of Schuyler’s tried-and-true tips include:

-The single-point estimate is almost always wrong, so that it is always better to express judgments as ranges. A probability distribution completely expresses someone’s judgment about the likelihood of values within the range.

-We often need a single-value cost or other assessment, and the expected value (mean) of the distribution is the only unbiased predictor. Expected value is the probability-weighted average, and this statistical idea is the cornerstone of decision analysis.

-Some decisions are easy, perhaps aided by quick decision tree calculations on the back of an envelope. Decision dilemmas typically involve risky outcomes, many factors, and the best alternatives having comparable value. We only need analysis sufficient to confidently identify the best alternative. As soon as you know what to do, stop the analysis!

-Be alert to ways to beneficially change project risks. We can often eliminate, avoid, transfer, or mitigate threats in some way. Get to know the people who make their living helping managers sidestep risk. They include insurance agents, partners, turnkey contractors, accountants, trainers, and safety personnel.

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This book describes philosophies, principles, practices and techniques for managing risk in projects and procurements, with a particular focus on complex or large-scale activities. The authors cover the basics of risk management in the context of project management, and outline a step-by-step approach. They then extend this approach into specialised areas of procurement (including tender evaluation, outsourcing and Public-Private Partnerships), introducing technical risk assessment tools and processes for environmental risk management. Finally they consider quantitative methods and the way they can be used in large projects. International case studies are included throughout.

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